1.Base demand
2.Seasonal factors
3.Trends
4.Cyclic factors
5.Promotions
6.Irregular quantities.
•Mathematically forecast is expressed as
¨Ft+1= (Bt x St x Tt x Ct x Pt) + I, where
-Ft+1= forecast quantity for period t+1
-Bt= base level sales demand (average sales level) for period t+1
-St= seasonal factor for period t
-T= trend component (quantity increase or decrease per time period)
-Ct= cyclic factor for period t
-Pt= promotional factor for period t
-I= irregular or random quantity.
¨All forecasts may not include all components.
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