It is developed at the RAND Corporation in 1960. Here a panel of experts are interrogated by a sequence of questionnaires in which the responses to one questionnaire are used to produce the next questionnaire.  Any set of information available to some experts and not others is thus passed on to the others, enabling all the experts to have access to all the information for forecasting.  This technique eliminates the bandwagon effect of majority opinion.

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Accuracy:

Short Term (0-3 months) : Fair to very good.

Medium Term (3months-2 years) : Fair to very good.

Long Term (2 years and above) : Fair to very good.

 

Identification of turning point : Fair to good.

 

Typical Application   : Forecasts of long range and new product sales, forecasts of

   margins.

 

Data Required:

A coordinator issues the sequence of questionnaires, editing and consolidating the responses.

 

Cost of forecasting with a Computer:           $2000 +

 

Is Calculation Possible without a computer:           Yes.

 

Time required to develop an application and make forecasts :    2 months +

 

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