Forecasting Approaches : The two general approaches to forecasting are :


(i)                 Qualitative methods consist mainly of subjective inputs, often of non-numerical description.

  • Jury of executive opinion method involves taking opinion of a small group of high-level managers and results in a group estimate of demand.
  • Salesforce composite method is based on estimate of expected sales by sales persons.
  • Market research method or consumer survey method determines consumer interest in a product or service by means of a consumer survey.
  • Delphi method is a judgemental method which uses a group process that allows experts to make forecasts.

(ii) Quantitative methods involve either projection of historical data or the development of association models which attempt to use causal variables to arrive at the forecasts.

1. Time series models use a series of past data to make a forecast for the future. Time series is a time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals over a period of time.

Yc = T. S. C. R multiplicative model

Yc = T + S + C + R additive model

where T is Trend, S is Seasonal, C is Cyclical, and R is Random components of a series.

Trend is a gradual long-term directional movement in the data (growth or decline).

Seasonal effects are similar variations occurring during corresponding periods, e.g., December retail sales. Seasonal can be quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily, or even hourly indexes.

Cyclical factors are the long-term swings about the trend line. They are often associated with business cycles and may extend out to several years in length.

Random component are sporadic (unpredictable) effects due to chance and unusual occurrences. They are the residual after the trend, cyclical, and seasonal variations are removed.

Trend: Three methods for describing trend are: (1) Moving average, (2) Hand fitting, and

(3) Least squares.

The following two tabs change content below.
We, at, believe in sharing knowledge and giving quality information to our BMS students. We are here to provide and update you with every details required by you BMSites! If you want to join us, please mail to [email protected]
  1. Singles clubs 2 months ago

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Information here to that Topic: […]

  2. w88 asia 2 months ago

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: […]

  3. … [Trackback]

    […] Information on that Topic: […]

  4. 카지노사이트 2 months ago

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: […]

  5. … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: […]

  6. 카지노사이트 1 month ago

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you will find 2252 additional Information to that Topic: […]

  7. 안전놀이터 1 week ago

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on that Topic: […]

  8. situs poker online 5 days ago

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information on that Topic: […]

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


* is aimed at revolutionising Bachelors in Management Studies education, also known as BMS for students appearing for BMS exams across all states of India. We provide free study material, 100s of tutorials with worked examples, past papers, tips, tricks for BMS exams, we are creating a digital learning library.

Disclaimer: We are not affiliated with any university or government body in anyway.

©2020 BMS - Bachelor of Management Studies Community 

A Management Paradise Venture

Ask Us On WhatsApp

Log in with your credentials


Forgot your details?


Create Account